Vic Schedler’s Weather Blog

The remnants of Gustav are close to the state of Arkansas, and right now the forecast track will keep it near the state for the next few days. The result? Flooding rains in a large part of the state. As much as 3 to 5 inches in the northern counties and 5 to 8 inches in southern, central and western counties. The track of what is now (as I write this) a tropical depression could change, so stay on top of later forecasts. Severe weather is possible on Wednesday–severe thunderstorms mainly–but we can’t rule out a tornado or two. The tropical depression is still a powerful low and could spin up some nasty weather. By late Thursday we should see all the rain slacking off, but a cold front will be moving into the state and that keeps the threat of rain ongoing. We are depending on the front to sweep the bad weather out of Arkansas.

Now that the holiday weekend is over, we turn our attention to rainfall and possible stormy weather from the remnants of Gustav. It looks like two days of steady rain are ahead–Tuesday and Wednesday. By then Gustav will just be a strong low pressure center–most likely in NE Texas. That’s close enough to send flooding rains into south, southwest and western Arkansas. Flash flood watches are out in those areas. A cold front will be moving down from the NW and interact with that area of low pressure. The result will be heavy rain, some severe thunderstorms and possibly an isolated tornado or two. KFFB will keep you informed of any serious weather situations over the next few days.

The Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be mostly rain-free, and also quite warm (OK, hot). A cold front enters the picture Friday (8/29). It’s a weak one and we only expect showers and t-storms along the front. In other words–a narrow band–mostly in the northern one-half of the state. Once the front slips on south we should be out of the woods–except for afternoon pop-up showers, and there won’t be many of them. Afternoon high temps will be around 90 or just above all weekend.

Looks like the holiday weekend will feature warm temperatures and only small chances for showers or thundershowers. Afternoon highs will be up near 90, and so far a 20% rain chance is all we see.

A cool-down will arrive next week.

What effect Gustav will have on our weather is still in the “guessing” stages. We did get some wind and rainshowers from Fay. Stay tuned.

We have chances for at least scattered showers and t-showers through the weekend. In other words, our weather will be “unsettled”. It will be interesting to see if the remnants of Tropical Storm Gay make it as far as Arkansas. It’s a possiblity. If some of its moisture reaches us, we’ll know what real tropical air feels like.

Off and on rainshowers and occasional thunderstorms will be our weather for the weekend. There will be plenty of dry hours, so no need to change your plans. One rainmaking system will be gone by Saturday morning, and the next one shouldn’t show up until late Sunday. There is no threat of severe weather the next few days.

A cold front will come close to the northern border of Arkansas tomorrow (7/9) and Thursday (7/10). We already have plenty of moisture and heat in place, and the cold front will be the trigger for t-storms–some could be severe. They won’t be widespread, but the northern one-third of the state will be the favored area for storm development. KFFB will broadcast any warnings that affect north central Arkansas.

Since February, the people of Arkansas have experienced severe storms, flooding and tornado devastation first hand, but many survived these deadly storms because they were prepared. The message is clear— severe storm and tornado preparation pays off.
The best defense against tornadoes is making preparedness a priority. Severe storms and tornadoes can approach quickly, and there may be only a short amount of time to make life-or-death decisions. Advance planning and quick response are the keys to surviving.
There are basic steps everyone can take to prepare for and to survive severe storms and tornadoes:
Assemble an emergency kit that should include:
. Flashlight and extra batteries;
. Portable, battery-operated radio or weather radio, and extra batteries;
. First aid kit;
. Emergency food and water;
. Non-electric can opener;
. Essential medicines;
. Cash and credit cards;
. Bedding or a sleeping bag; and
. Sturdy shoes and a change of clothes.
Create a family communication plan, so that if your family is not together when a tornado strikes, you’ll have contact numbers to keep in touch. Sometimes calling an out-of-state relative as a main point of contact is a good idea, since phone lines may be down. Also, families at home need to “shelter in place” during a tornado. Plan to meet family members in the lowest part of the home, preferably a basement or safe room. If there is no basement, choose an interior room where there are few or no windows.
Learn these tornado danger signs:
 An approaching cloud of debris can mark the location of a tornado even if a funnel is not visible;
 Before a tornado hits, the wind may die down and the air may become very still; and
 Tornadoes generally occur near the trailing edge of a thunderstorm. It is not uncommon to see clear, sunlit skies behind a tornado.
When a tornado is sighted, the most important rule is to get low and stay low.
• At home—Seek shelter in a basement; storm shelter or safe room; interior room on the lowest floor of the home, such as a bathroom; or a closet or room without windows.
• At work—Go to an interior room or hallway on the lowest floor.
• In a mobile home—Leave your mobile home and take shelter in a nearby building. If no building is nearby, lie flat in a ditch or ravine.
• In an automobile—Leave the car and lie flat in a ditch or a ravine. If a building is nearby, take shelter inside. Never try to outrun a tornado in your car.
• At school—Follow plans and go to a designated shelter area, usually interior hallways on the lowest floor. Avoid auditoriums, cafeterias, or gyms and areas with wide, free-span roofs.
• At a shopping center—Go to the interior rooms and halls on the lowest floor of a shopping center. Do not leave the shopping center to get in your car.
• Outside in the open—Take cover on low, protected ground.
The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) is the state’s homeland security and emergency management agency. The agency works to identify and lessen the effects of emergencies, disasters and threats to Arkansas by developing effective prevention, preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery actions for all disasters and emergencies.
FEMA coordinates the Federal government’s role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terrorism.
Editors:  For more information on Arkansas disaster recovery, visit www.fema.gov or http://www.adem.arkansas.gov/.
Disaster recovery assistance is available to any individual without regard to race, color, sex, religion, national origin, age, disability, English proficiency or economic status.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern one-half of the state in a slight risk category for severe thunderstorms on Friday. A cold front will be making its way into the state, and severe thunderstorms could accompany the front.

The KFFB Weather Team will monitor the situation and broadcast any watches and warnings.

High pressure covering the southeastern United States is serving as a block to keep weather systems away from Arkansas. They are forced to go around the dome of high pressure and the result is storms in the Midwest–not here. It will stay quite warm and humid on into the weekend with 90s for highs and 70s for lows. We may have a shot at thunderstorms (isolated to scattered) on Friday.