THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONT REMAINED STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT. 
PRECIPITATION WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND THIS WAS KEEPING 
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING OVERLY UNSTABLE.

MEANWHILE...IT WAS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE 70S IN TEXAS...AND GULF MOISTURE 
WAS INCREASING. SHEAR VALUES WERE ALSO ON THE WAY UP...WITH MORE 
TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM 
SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO. 

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTHEAST TEXAS. GIVEN A LOT OF SHEAR...THE STORMS WILL TEND TO 
ROTATE...AND TORNADOES MAY BE SPAWNED. SOME OF THESE TORNADIC STORMS 
MAY BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN 
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SWEEP 
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS 
OF WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE SPAWNED 
WITH SHEAR REMAINING HIGH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO 
THIRDS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF 
WIND SURROUNDING THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. GUSTS COULD 
APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. 

THERE IS A LOT OF TREE DAMAGE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE 
TO AN ICE STORM IN LATE JANUARY. A LOT OF WIND WILL LIKELY DOWN 
WEAKENED TREE BRANCHES...AND THIS COULD CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO 
SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS EVENT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. RAINFALL TOTALS 
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. IN 
GENERAL...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME 
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH WHERE TREE DEBRIS SLOWS 
RUNOFF OF RAIN WATER.

THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE 
ADVISED TO CHECK LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH 
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO 
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WIND SPEEDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH 
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.