.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A FRONT REMAINED STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND THIS WAS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING OVERLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...IT WAS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE 70S IN TEXAS...AND GULF MOISTURE WAS INCREASING. SHEAR VALUES WERE ALSO ON THE WAY UP...WITH MORE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. GIVEN A LOT OF SHEAR...THE STORMS WILL TEND TO ROTATE...AND TORNADOES MAY BE SPAWNED. SOME OF THESE TORNADIC STORMS MAY BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE SPAWNED WITH SHEAR REMAINING HIGH. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND SURROUNDING THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF TREE DAMAGE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO AN ICE STORM IN LATE JANUARY. A LOT OF WIND WILL LIKELY DOWN WEAKENED TREE BRANCHES...AND THIS COULD CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS EVENT... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH WHERE TREE DEBRIS SLOWS RUNOFF OF RAIN WATER. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING EVENT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS
February 10, 2009 by